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(Miami, FL) - A new study finds a ‘pressure point’ in the Gulf could cause hurricanes to rapidly intensify.
This "loop current" anomaly intrigued Oceanographer Dr. Yonggang Liu at the USF College of Marine Science’s Ocean Circulation Lab.
“We wanted to understand how the warm subsurface waters of the West Florida Shelf were able to persist all summer,” said Yonggang Liu, associate professor and lead author of the recent study. “What were the conditions in the Gulf that allowed these temperatures to develop in the first place?”
Dr. Liu says the strong loop current failed to flush the warm water from the shallow region of the Gulf in 2022 leading to Hurricane Ian's rapid intensification from a Cat 3-to a 5 before hitting Southwest Florida.
He says fortunately, so far this year, the waters are cool which is not favorable for storm formation or intensification.
“Typically, there is a mixing of the water column where warmer surface waters interact with the underlying, often cooler subsurface water,” said Liu. “But in this case, the shelf water was not able to cool down because the Loop Current did not initiate any upwelling.”
Dr. Liu says identifying the "pressure point" will now help forecasters to more accurately predict hurricane intensity.
“The more real-time observations we have of the entire water column, the better predictions we can provide, and the safer our communities will be,” Liu said. “This type of monitoring provides more complete data to predict intensity of future storms.”